Department of Defense Briefing by Lt. Gen. Anderson in the Pentagon Briefing Room via satellite from Afghanistan

COL. STEVE WARREN: Welcome members of the fourth estate. It's great to see you here. Today we have a great honor to welcome to our briefing room the commander of the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command, Lieutenant General Joe Anderson. General Anderson assumed command in Afghanistan in January of this year. Since January, we've seen Afghanistan go through tremendous transition, a new president inaugurated in Kabul, and Afghanistan's first democratic transition of power. The new Afghan government signed the bilateral security agreement. A NATO status of forces agreement will now make it possible for allies and partners to solidify their plans to contribute to the resolute support mission next year. I'll moderate the questions from here. Understand that General Anderson cannot see you. Of course, we can see him. When I call on you, please call General Anderson out by identifying for him who you're with, name, and then I'll remind you that because of the satellite connection, there's about five-second delay. So please factor that in as you're talking and pausing. We've got about 20 to 30 minutes to get through this. And with that, General Anderson, I'll turn it over to you for opening remarks. Sir? LT. GEN. JOSEPH ANDERSON: Okay, Steve, thanks. It's good to be with you all. Thanks for coming out tonight, for me, this morning, for you. Just a couple of quick nondescript -- just a couple quick messages for you here about where we are, where we think we're going to hopefully help you with some of your questions. Right up front, the Afghan national security forces are winning, and this is a hugely capable fighting force who have been holding their ground against the enemy. We've described 2014 as the year of change. That seems to be the only thing that's been constant here, has been change. The Afghan national security forces, remain about 352,000. It's about a 156 army, 155 police split. They have secured all of the election process and maintained a steady operational tempo throughout this fighting season. The insurgents have had minimal effects on the elections. They did conduct a total of 761 attacks, but only about 174 of those were effective, effective meaning it hurt, did damage to someone or something. Throughout the entire election process, the ordered recount in a fighting season we've been in a close air support business. The intelligence surveillance reconnaissance business, the quick reaction force business, helping with command and control, advisers and some sustainment support. The BSA, the Bilateral Security Agreement, and the NATO Status of Forces Agreement were a major setback for the insurgents here this past month. The ANSF has been in the lead for the entire year. I think that you all know that -- (AUDIO GAP) LT. GEN. ANDERSON: -- executed 940 total operations this year, which is -- they're averaging four to five more times attacks per week than last year, very, very significant. And this year, the Taliban have failed to achieve tactical superiority over the ANSF. They have matched some forces in a few provinces districts, but they were not able to hold them. They were beaten back. By the way, the -- their initiated attacks are down this year from around 24,000 to 18,000. The ANSF has sustained about a 6.5 percent increase in casualties this year, 46-34 this year versus 43-50 killed in action last year. We expected that actually to be much higher based on the role they've played and where they've been. So overall, fairly stable in comparison to last year. In the transition arena, we, as I think you all know, we are downsizing. We started off with 54,000 service members here when I took over in January, from 48 nations. We're now down to 38,000 soldiers from 44 nations, 27,000 of which are American. We'll get down to 12,500 here by the end of the year, which will be the 9,800 U.S. commitment. And again, we expect about 26 other nations to provide forces as well. This will be a mixture of advisers, force protection soldiers and enabler providers like close-air support and ISR. We are heavily in the base closure transition process. We started with 86 at the beginning of the year. We're down to 26 and we shut one more down next week and we're done. At the same time as the troop drawdown, we've been retrograding, redeploying, destroying and transferring equipment to the ANSF -- ANSFF, ANSF. We have reduced 21,000 pieces of rolling stock; about 1.7 million pieces of non-rolling stock; and retrograded and divested some others. And we've also on the foreign excess personal property, about $620 million worth of equipment has been transferred. We're on glide-path to get to 31 December for Resolute Support, and as of yesterday, you probably some of the stories today, we transitioned our last regional command to a train-advise-assist command in the east, so we no longer have regional commands here in Afghanistan. Next month is when IJC will merge into ISAF, and then ISAF will take over operational control of all ground forces. So lots of progress. The mission is not done. What Resolute Support is all about is trying to get the Afghans above the tactical level to the operational and strategic level. The advisers will focus on the ministerial and institutional levels to work systems, processes, and professionalize the force. We focused those efforts along eight essential functions. That's everything from planning, programming, budgeting, execution, to sustainment, to planning. The keys are going to be the cross-(inaudible) -- coordination between the army, the police and the NDS, working their intelligence systems and processes, and the continued development of the Afghan air force. Strategic issues remain forecasting logistical requirements and the budgeting process. So I'll wrap up here, and ready to take your questions. The Afghans are thankful for our efforts and support. They're getting after it. They're doing very, very well tactically. Next year, the challenges will be focusing on what I just described, but it's also going to be a year of great opportunity. COL. WARREN: Thank you, sir. We'll go -- we'll take our first question to Phil Stewart from Reuters. Q: Yeah, hi, general. Thanks for doing this. Could you give us an update on where things stand in the fight against the Haqqanis? I know that there's been operations across the border in Pakistan. There was a successful arrest in Afghanistan of one of Haqqani's sons several weeks ago. How do you see the threat posed by Haqqani? Does the fusion cell set up last year or early this year still exist? Where do things stand? Thank you. LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay, thank you. Well, the Haqqani Network is one of the many threat streams that continue to affect us here in Afghanistan. And as you know, Haqqani Network is focused more on the high profile attack like the large vehicle borne explosives, those types of attacks. Right now, the efforts of the ANSF are very focused on that. There's also the SOF component focused on the Haqqani. And again, we are in the enabler business in supporting what the ANSF does. Basically, there's about six today about six threat streams based on that network trying to work their way into Kabul. They're very Kabul-centric. Obviously, as you mentioned, the border -- the do come in from the east. They are fractured. They are fractured like the Taliban is. That's based pretty much on the Pakistan ops and North Waziristan this entire summer-fall. That has very much disrupted their efforts here and has caused them to be less effective in terms of their ability to pull off an attack here in Kabul. Q: (inaudible) -- to support the idea that they become less effective and that the operations have disrupted them? Could you give us any examples of how you have operational reporting about -- to support that? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Say that one again, please. That one came in a little broken. (AUDIO GAP) LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay, now I can -- whoever just spoke, I can hear you. Q: Any specific examples to help illuminate how the threat has been diminished. LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Well, the examples are been what the ANSF in fact has been in terms of their security operations. So they've been able to secure the major road networks. They've worked the border crossings and they've kind of worked a layered ebb and flow based on all the different events that have transpired since the summertime. But they've worked a layered approach to protect Kabul. But I think -- I think the successes, the finds they've made in the -- in the -- how they prevented the large vehicles explosives from getting in here and also hitting many of the caches and things like that where they've disrupted their efforts before they've been able to put an attack together. Q: Hi, general, Jon Harper with Stars and Stripes. Are the ANSF capable of going into Taliban strongholds and reclaiming territory? Or is their objective after U.S. troops draw down basically to hold the line and prevent the Taliban from taking over even more territory? And also post-2014, where will the U.S. air support come from? Will that come from assets and bases in country? Or will that come from locations in the region or U.S. aircraft carriers? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: The second question first. That'll be -- the air assets will come from a combination. There will be still assets here in theater and then, of course, there's always theater-wide assets. They come from outside the country to do the same thing based on what types of operations are being conducted here, what has to be supported from a force protection capability for the coalition to in extremist or, you know, catastrophic strategic implication type things for the ANSF. So a combination of both. The first question, they've done both. They've demonstrated in Doha, Visserat, Sangin, many different district centers, that they have the capability to go back in and reclaim ground. They've done that -- estimates vary from 6-10 times since the summer in a variety of places from Helmand, Nangarhar, Ghazni, et cetera. So they've demonstrated their ability to do that. But along with that, they're also trying to ensure presence back to that layer, defense I was just explaining about the Haqqani piece, about how they're trying to ensure that they maintain freedom of movement, places like Highway 1 and Wardak, Ghazni and in some of the more contested areas, Northern Helmand, Northern Zabul, Southern Ghazni, Kunar, Kunduz and some of those provinces. So they've been able to do that multiple times since this summer. Q: Thank you. COL. WARREN: (inaudible) -- go ahead. Q: Dan DeLuce from AFP. Just wanted to follow up on what you were talking about close air support. So if I understand correctly, you're saying that the main focus of close air support in the future will be force protection. And it would be an exceptional circumstance to use close air support in support of the ANSF. Is that correct? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: That's right. Those authorities have yet to be defined. The right of force protection's going to be the number one use of those assets. Remember in 2015, the ANSF has full responsibility. So as they keep working their MI-17 program, their MI-35 program, the MD-530s, the A-29s, all the things that they're trying to complement, supplement, air weapons teams, that will be their version of close air support. What's yet to be defined explicitly will be coalition assets in support of ANSF, based on what types of operations they're doing and, again, what the strategic consequences may be based on where they find themselves, what situations they get into, based on what the enemy threat evolves into here for 2015. Q: And just to follow up -- follow up on air power, what about medical evacuations? What -- it -- will it be the same case where it would be more of an exception or rare case that there was a air evacuation for ANSF soldier, for example? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Well yes, the bottom line is they're doing it now. So medevac, casevac, 88 percent of all medevac-casevac right now is done by the ANSF. That's not necessarily by air, though. That's a combination of air and ground. But we provide very limited, very limited support to them and the casevac, essentially since summer time on. And they -- they -- they have full responsibility for that essentially now. Q: Hi, general. This is Courtney Kube from NBC News. General Campbell gave an interview several days ago where he said that he's currently assessing whether there will be enough U.S. troops, U.S. and coalition troops, in 2015 and 2016 to make sure that the Afghan security forces are ready to take on security for the entire country after all the rest of the coalition forces have left. Are you part of any kind of -- a formal assessment? Are you providing him information? I guess, is -- is there an assessment that's going on right now to determine whether the -- the 9,800 number U.S. troops plus the additional several thousand coalition forces whether that needs to be increased even temporarily going into 2015? LT.GEN. ANDERSON: Yeah, I am not part of that assessment process, there -- I mean, the assessment process is a logical, natural thing that we all do based on the environment here. And again, as we're dealing with contributing -- troop contributing nation numbers and -- and as our footprint draws down, the -- the bottom line that we're focused on, at IJC, is the base plan, the base we've been working all year, which was to get to the final footprint, the final numbers, and the four-plus-one platform, which is the north, west, south, and east, and the Kabul-centric platform. That is what we have been steering towards all year, all around elections, and run-offs, and audits, and fighting season. And that has not changed for us. The issue will be based on who provides what at the end of the year and what that means. And, of course, the government of Afghanistan, the current president's concerned about the time they've lost based on no BSA being signed, no SOFA being signed for the majority of the year, and the election process, how much time that took. So there are -- there are people concerned about what we've lost because of all that. But our focus has been on the enabling business for the fighting season; the train-advise-assist business; institutionalization; all the functions I described earlier with the enablers; and getting all the retrograde redeployment to the base plan that was designed from the beginning of the year, which has not changed up till December 31. Q: The Afghan security forces have lost -- I think that the article said that it was six to eight months of time because of the -- the delay in the BSA. Does that concern you at all that they've lost that time and that may set them back operationally? (AUDIO GAP) LT. GEN. ANDERSON: I don't think it set them back operationally, but set them back strategically from the ministerial platform. It's cost them a lot of money. It's cost them time to get their systems in place. That's everything from pay rolls to contracts, to budgets, to logistical forecasting. So it's been all that process cost them more money. It cost them more time. But what it did demonstrate time and time again through all the security -- way back from the loya jurga back in November of '13 to the Ghazni Islamic festival, (inaudible), the opening of parliament, election, run-off, audit process, the presidential inauguration, through all of those major events throughout the year, they maintained steady and capable in the midst of a fighting season non-stop. So I -- I don't think it set them back. It made them all the more better in terms of command and control, combined arms integration. We talked about medevac, casevac a little while ago -- fires, integration of air, sustainment, intelligence, all categories have improved based on all those things they did all year. So the -- the part that they've lost was a development -- institutionalization. It cost them people going to school. It cost professional development and all those systems I described earlier. That's what resolute support will provide next year to enhance that capability at the ministerial level and from those core platforms where the -- where the core headquarters are as the center of the ANSF in each of those regions to build those systems processes, organizations. But the tactical operational piece, a very solid steady performance throughout 2014. Q: General, Dave Martin with CBS. Just to clarify from Courtney's question, is there any consideration being given to changing that 9,800 base number? And second, when you outlined all the tasks that the 9,800 would do, you did not mention special operation forces and counter-terrorism. Is the -- does the counter-terrorism mission for the United States end on December 31st? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: It does not. I do not -- the counterterrorism piece and the special ops piece is not the stuff that I command here. That's under General Campbell and Major General Ed Reeder. But that mission does continue. And again the same question about authorities, in terms of what their authorities will be post-2015 are still being worked out. But that is not -- that is not -- the reason why I didn't mention that specifically. It does exist, but that's not the realm that I command and control here. The 9,800 number is the number and that's the number that we're moving towards on December 31st. And anything beyond that number is not in my ballpark. So I -- I am not involved with anything different than, as I said to you guys, the base plan. Q: The 9,800 does not include special operations forces. They -- whatever numbers they are would be in addition to 9,800. LT. GEN. ANDERSON: No, the 9,800 hundred is all U.S., and then the coalition issue will be 2,500 to 2,700 -- whatever the troop-contributing nations finalize, up to about 12,500 is the combined 26-nation and U.S. number; 9,800 of which is the U.S., which does include the CT numbers. Q: General, Cheryl Pelleren from DOD News. Can you -- what -- can you name what kind of troops are going to be needed after 2014? And -- exactly -- and are you going to have to extend the institutionalization process past 2014? And did you expect to? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Yes, we do. The institutional process is going to take they kind of got a gap. They've got the senior -- the senior corps of guys who've been around a long time and you've got this very young, up and coming young junior officer field. They're National Defense University out there, which consists of their -- their basic. They have -- they're a combination of officer candidate school-equivalent, a U.S. military academy-equivalent, and a Sandhurst equivalent. So you go to university and go for one year and get commissioned, versus four years military versus taking -- taking college practical application and going through a modified program to get commissioned, normally with prior service enlisted service. So they have all those combinations. They have a sergeant-major's academy. They have all -- they have all the equivalent schools that we have in our country, and they are trying to enhance, expand and make them as meaningful, effective, and as best qualified as they can for their force. So there are -- there are advisers that are going to -- you asked what types of people are going to be here, there are people specifically here just for the institutional training piece to help all the different schoolhouses from police, from the army, all the basic courses. Those types of programs are going to be alive and well and there will be people dedicated just to that. Then there will be advisers at the core platforms, which again are going to be a combination primarily of combat arms-type people who help work them through their operational-type stuff. But then there will be specialists coming in for sustainment, budget, installation, infrastructure, management, contracting, personnel systems. And the Afghan human resource information management system called ARIMS is being fielded, which helps them account for people. It makes direct pay. It actually -- when soldiers get paid now, it goes right to a bank, versus through anybody's hands. So it helps with corruption, accountability. Lots of those systems' processes are all going to take certain specialties to help move these -- move the core platforms and the ministerial interior, defense, move them along further here in the capital. So it will be a variety of -- and of course, then you're going to have your standard intel personnel here working with, you know, at reduced intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance. There's going to be airmen here, joint tactical air controllers doing as we were talking about earlier, the close-air support and helping with the -- with the Afghan air force, with the fielding of the -- a lot of the A-29 training will occur in the States. But the fielding of that equipment here in the next year or two, but getting air -- Afghan air traffic controllers, air tactical controllers, air liaison officers -- all those different fields will be included in these -- in these, as we say, these regional core platforms and the Kabul-centric platform. Q: Thank you, general. The future of the Afghan economy has a lot to do with the success of the Afghan government and the Afghan military, and there was a report that just came out in the past few hours that the Pentagon had tried to work with Iran to help boost the economy in Afghanistan. Can you tell me a little -- can you confirm that that was the case? And if not, which countries has the Pentagon and the military been reaching out to try to help boost the Afghan economy as we're pulling out? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Yeah, I'm going to need your help. A lot of background noise on that. Can you -- I'm not sure where you're standing. Can you try that again? I know it's about the economy. I couldn't get most of what you said. Q: The Afghan economy is crucial to the Afghan military and Afghan government's success. And I had seen reports in the past few hours about the Pentagon and the military working with or trying to work with Iran to help boost Afghanistan's economy. And I wanted to say -- to ask you, can you confirm that? And if not, what countries has the Pentagon and the military been reaching out to try to boost the Afghan economy? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay, I think I got most of it. The issue is what we're trying to do to help with the economic situation here. I think that was the gist of your question. It was still coming in very broken. I mean, the bottom line is the trust in the institutions and the security to allow investment. Obviously through all the forms that have been held, all of the dialog to include the summit -- the summit in Wales back in September, validated what people's -- people's -- other countries' nations' interests are in terms of support here. The key is to have credibility in the institutions to promote that, and of course there'll be -- I'm going to assume, the economy piece of things here is not -- obviously not the area that I spend most of my time on. The issue other nations making bilaterals and making contributions like what they're doing at the -- you know, the academy piece is the U.K. -- the U.K. working their education piece, their -- our other examples where different nations provide in the medical arenas, working with the military hospitals and civilian hospitals and there are many examples, but I'm not -- I'm not the expert in who's providing what. The key thing is making sure they have the opportunity to based on the environment here. And I -- and again, the countries that are coming in as the framework nations, the Germans, the Italians, the Turks, obviously the Americans, and what we're doing on each of these platforms here in the north, the west, the south, the east here in Kabul, all contribute to the security arena, the $5.2 billion to sustain the ANSF, and then all the other things that are going on in terms of supporting particular aspects of their development, training, professionalization, if that makes sense. Q: Talks with Iran about helping with the economy. Because you mentioned the Germans, the Italians, the Turks, but there were reports that Iranians were being discussed with for futures with pharmacies and whatnot. Were you aware of any of that? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Yeah, did you ask about -- you're coming in really bad. Did you ask about the Turks? COL. WARREN: There was a report in the Wall Street Journal today about Iran contributing to Afghan economy. The question is if you can confirm that or if you can remark on Iran's contribution to the Afghan economy. LT. GEN. ANDERSON: I cannot comment. I don't know anything about Iran's contribution to Afghanistan. COL. WARREN: We've got time for two. Q: Sir, Richard Sisk from military.com. Can you describe what the situation is now in the Sangin down in Helmand? Is that one of the areas where you mentioned earlier that the Taliban have been able to reclaim ground? And if you could, sir, could you describe how cooperation, coordination with ANSF, has that improved now that President Karzai is gone and you've got President Ghani? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay. I heard the first part pretty clear. I think you asked about the current situation in Helmand. Helmand is pretty much based on the Marines, retrograde from the north down to Central Helmand, exposed Sangin, Nauzad, Kajacki. That whole area which began end of June, beginning of July was right after the runoff. Some of the checkpoints have been -- that were established for the election have been abandoned. They did get to make some inroads in terms of the district center, principally in Sangin. But through a collaborative effort of the ANSF, early July, mid-July all that was retaken. There's been a couple different movements there by different pillars, including commandos and some other assets there that got involved throughout the course of the summer. But to maintain the security there under the efforts of the 215th Corps, the ANCOP, the border police and the uniformed police. So that -- that was an evolving, ongoing thing post-runoff which in the end, again, the ANSF did retake control, regain control. It did take -- it did take a couple of weeks and it take a lot of assets. It took a lot of ISR. It took a lot of enablers, but that sorted itself out by -- by end of the summer and that remains the case there now with General Malouk and the 215th Corps heavily in control of northern Helmand. He's repositioned some forces and they've maintained that ability now into here in November. I did not -- the second part of your question, I didn't get any of it. COL. WARREN: Relations have improved with the Afghan central government since the transition to a new president.  LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay. General -- the generals have all been engaged with their new leadership. President Ghani has been -- he's gone out and congratulated them. He's empowered them. He's gone to hospitals to go see the wounded. He's popped in police stations at 11 o'clock, midnight to see what folks are doing on duty.  But he's been very grateful and thankful of the ANSF for all those things I described, what they've accomplished here this past year. And he's been very engaged, heavily engaged with the leadership of the police, of the army, in dialogue with corps commanders, provincial chiefs of police. He addressed each of the ministers' conferences a couple weeks ago and the combined conference between the police and the army.  So there's been a lot more enhanced dialogue, a lot more communication, and a lot more support of their efforts to enhance security here in the country. COL. WARREN: Sir we will take one more question and then go to closing comments. Q: General, it's Louis Martinez of ABC News. Going back to your opening statement, sir, I heard you say some figures about casualties. And I want to verify that there were fatalities, all of them. If you could do the -- interpretation, colonel. I added up and it comes up to 9,000 over two years. How can that possibly be sustainable for the ANSF if they're all fatalities? And what was the baseline before two years ago? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: All right, Steve, I think -- I think he was asking casualties, but can you -- that's all I could hear. Q: The two-year totals that he got -- that he provided. I think he said they were fatalities. I added them up in my head. It comes out to 9,000, almost 9,000 over two years. How can that possibly be sustainable for the ANSF? And what was the baseline before two years ago? COL. WARREN: The question on casualties, you mentioned 9,000 casualties. The question is was that killed in action? Was the 9,000 deaths in two years? And if so, how could that possibly be sustainable? And what was the previous baseline to compare it to? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Yeah, the data -- the data I gave you, it was -- it was killed in action, 4,350 for 2013 and 4,634 for 2014. Those are -- those are killed in action. No, this is not sustainable. So the issue they're having between attrition, they're averaging around -- their goal is a 1.4 percent AWOL rate between the army and police. The army's gone down some. The police have gone up some. But the bottom line, their first priority right now is to get their recruiting back up and to -- you'll hear lots of talk about organizational restructure, the tashkils, make it to the -- which is their manning document, to get their manning document filled to their numbers. The police are about 89 percent and the army is about 81 percent fill. So, they're reorganizing their headquarters. They're working how they're recruiting and they have to also work everything fundamentally, particularly on the police side, their tactics, techniques, procedures for how they protect them self with their equipment, with their counter-IED, that -- that's their individual protective equipment. That's their counter-IED equipment to make sure they have less casualties due to IEDs. It's a -- it's a combination of all of the above. But they do need to decrease their casualty rate. They've done -- as we talked earlier about their MEDEVAC capabilities, how you continue to improve quality of care at the point of injury all the way through evacuation to a hospital. All those things have to continue to improve to reduce those numbers because those numbers are not sustainable in the long term. Q: To the last piece of that question, do you -- do you have comparable figures for, you know, prior -- for prior years to get a sense for the trends on -- on killed in action? LT. GEN. ANDERSON: I don't know if I brought how far back I brought. Hold on a sec. Yeah, we can -- that -- I've only got -- with me, I only have the -- because we were comparing the year they took the lead as they get to full responsibility. So all -- all -- we do have data for a multiple of years back, and we can get that back. But all I -- all I have with me is the last two because we were comparing in the lead the full responsibility. That was the comparison for us this past year. COL. WARREN: Closing remarks, we'll take them. LT. GEN. ANDERSON: Okay, yeah, just to reinforce three things, if you will. The -- the ANSF is winning. I hope I gave you enough examples. They are the most trusted government organization in Afghanistan. They are trying to provide time and space for this society to grow and -- and reduce the insurgency. But as the events of -- of -- as things progress here, like the first democratic transition of power, we have to continue to watch what the objectives are going to be of -- of the insurgency and how we try to ensure that the ANSF helps establish legitimacy here in the country. I want to reinforce the coalition's efforts have not been in vain. Through international organizations and many contributing nations, education, free press, telecommunications, all these things are going very well. We can -- we can see the benefits of this new democrat-elected government taking shape. It is very optimistic here. There is more capability. There is more accountability. And there's more opportunity than we've seen in the past year -- 7.9 million primary, secondary kids going to school, more girls. Literacy rate is now 30 percent, very, very good, which is up from 12 during Taliban rule. Internet, cell phone use, all these things continue to make a difference here. And as you all asked as we look at the 70 donor countries, the issue will be what -- what things they tend to grab onto based on stability and security thriving here and people seeing again progress, forward progress. Lastly, as I said, there's still -- there's still progress to be made. And again, the core ministerial levels will be the focus. We will develop institutions. We will work to make a sustainable, capable military force. The key is to maintain a tactical overmatch over the Taliban and ask them to become ever more important as the coalition footprint reduces byDecember 31 and reduces again at the end of '15. Thanks for your questions. Thanks for your -- your attendance, and thanks for your attention. COL. WARREN: Sir we thank you for your time and look forward to you back here at home station. That's the Pentagon out.

TANK TRENCH

11/05/2014 04:24 PM CST

Soldiers cross a tank trench after creating a path using Assault Breaching vehicles during exercise Combined Resolve III in Hohenfels, Germany, Oct. 29, 2014. The soldiers are assigned to Company A, 91st Engineer Battalion, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. Combined Resolve III is a multinational training exercise reinforcing commitment to ally and partner nations.

Russia Pushing Limits of International Order,

Russia Pushing Limits of International Order, Dempsey Says

By Lisa Ferdinando
DoD News, Defense Media Activity

WASHINGTON, Nov. 5, 2014 - Russia is "pushing on the limits of international order," the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia in general are pushing the limits because they don't believe the international order was crafted in a way that met their national interests, Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey said during a question-and-answer session at an event on hiring veterans in New York.

Putin and Russia express a sense of victimization following the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the chairman said. Noting that the Russian president recently delivered a speech on that narrative, Dempsey characterized it as "an anti-Western soliloquy that literally lasted for about three hours."

NATO Commitment is Principal Responsibility

"Our principal responsibility here, of course, is our NATO commitment, notably the Article 5 responsibility, which says an attack on one is an attack on all," he said. "Twenty-eight nations of NATO are committed to living up to that."

Dempsey said the difficulty is in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine -- the nations located between NATO allies and Russian aggressiveness. To help in meeting that challenge, he said, the U.S. military needs to do different things with rotational presence.

"We probably need to do some things in every domain -- air, sea and ground," he said. "It's going to, I think, require us to put forces back into Europe that we had taken out."

The chairman said he doesn't expect the American forces in the region to be "dramatically big," but he added that "they'll be substantial enough to allow us to deter Russian aggression against our NATO allies."

Russia is creating an unstable situation, Dempsey said, and it has also "kind of lit a fire of nationalism."

"Once you light that fire, it's not controllable," the general said. "I am worried about Europe."

For about 20 years, Dempsey said, Europe has been complacent with its security. "I don't think they can afford to be complacent any longer," he added.

Other International Topics

Questions for the chairman also touched on other international topics. U.S. service members fighting Ebola in Liberia are "making a real difference," he said in response to a question on that subject.

Separately, when asked about whether the United States should have kept residual forces in Iraq, Dempsey said he was in favor of such an arrangement.

He said the United States did not finish some things in Iraq, such as logistics and intelligence architecture for Iraqi forces and in providing them with close air support and lift capabilities. But the U.S. capability couldn't remain there without an agreement that protected U.S. forces, the chairman said.

"History will be the judge," Dempsey said. "To my satisfaction, we tried to get them to a place where they could provide us the protections and immunities we need." However, he said, he did not want to leave U.S. forces there with Iraq's "particular judicial system at the time without protections and immunities."

The general said he thinks that over the next several years there will be a requirement to help Iraq with an operations center "so that we can share intelligence better and we can watch how they are executing their campaign plan."

"I think we're going to have to rebuild pieces of the Iraqi army at secure bases," he added, "and we've got about three or four of them identified that we think we need to stand up."

Statement of California Democratic Party Chairman John Burton on 2014 Election Results

 

It appears Democrats across the nation will always have California. On a night that saw Republicans make gains across the nation, much like in 2010, California has held firm. At the statewide level, California remains a deep blue beacon because of the bold leadership of Jerry Brown and our strong Democratic majority in Sacramento.

 

In a repeat of 2010, California Democrats swept all statewide offices this year and even helped pass the most significant criminal justice reform measures in decades with Proposition 47.

 

Democrats under Governor Brown have accomplished much in just four short years and our victories at the statewide level serve as an affirmation of that reality.

 

While the results were less decidedly in our favor at the district level, the reality is California Democrats have had an embarrassment of riches for the past several election cycles and that has left us with many seats to defend, often in Republican leaning territory in low turn out cycles.

 

We look forward to recommitting to our efforts pressing into Republican strongholds, in particular the Central Valley. Many of the seats that were lost last night will be regained in just two years and there are many more which will be ripe for the picking from Republican hands in 2016.

Open Architecture Cuts Cost, Promotes Competition, Official Says

By Cheryl Pellerin
DoD News, Defense Media Activity

WASHINGTON, Nov. 5, 2014 - Adopting open architectures in systems that the Defense Department buys from industry can reduce costs and facilitate competition, the assistant secretary of defense for acquisition said here yesterday.

Katrina G. McFarland was the morning keynote speaker at Defense Daily's 2014 Open Architecture Summit, which focused on open architecture in military acquisition.

Open architecture is a system in which the specifications are made public to encourage third-party vendors to develop add-on products. In defense acquisition, the term extends to creating separate modules in a larger system, each of which can be updated to modernize the entire system without rebuilding it, and the modules can be produced by different vendors, promoting diversity and competition at the module or component level.

Acquisition Strategies Implement Open Systems Architecture

McFarland said 75 percent of Defense Department acquisition strategies implement open systems architecture across all services and agencies. "The importance that we place on it is not just in word only, it's in action," she added.

"This department is seriously engaged in trying to understand how to help our program managers and our department and our industry look at open architecture and its benefits," McFarland said, "and understand truly what our objectives are related to intellectual property and making sure that we're doing it based on the best interest of national security relative to a business case."

According to the August 2014 Guidelines for Creating and Maintaining a Competitive Environment for Supplies and Services in the Department of Defense, developing an open system may be less expensive than traditional systems because of reductions in material cost, the use of commercial standard interfaces, and the more effective maintenance and modification possible over a system's lifecycle.

Open systems architecture also may be used to overcome barriers to competition by applying open standards and open business model principles, the Guidelines book says.

McFarland told the audience that confusion exists in the defense industry about intellectual property and open systems architecture. "The government has no interest in pursuing intellectual property when it's the 'secret sauce' of a company," she said, "but ... we are very interested in what I could call the interfaces."

Owning Interfaces Allows Department to Compete

Owning the interfaces and the architecture allows the department to compete, the assistant secretary explained.

"Conceptually, you're trying to get your program managers ... to understand when they design their functional architecture that they have to take into account what they must go after in terms of ... modularity so they can build and change in that area," McFarland said. "You should have a logic behind what you're doing, and it should be based on a business case, and you should be able to articulate where you consider those threats to be most prevalent so you can [determine] how to address that interface."

In terms of defense exportability, she added, "I'm very interested in ensuring that when I build something I know will have export trade related to it."

"Because of our relationship with other nations," she added, "I want to make sure I've protected the ability of those countries to implement their aspects [of open architecture] as well."

Guidelines Offer Information on Acquisition Practices

McFarland said the Guidelines book offers good information about the use of open architecture in military acquisition practices.

"In that book you will find ... highlights of what we believe people need to think about, ... and we give examples throughout the document of how [open architecture] works to the benefit of industry, to the benefit of the government, and most importantly, to the benefit of national security," she said.

The book advises that "the essence of OSA is to take the long-standing engineering practice of modularization and adding to that the rigor of ensuring those modules can be separated from each other in a well-orchestrated manner."

These technical practices, the book adds, "provide the power to acquire components of a system from separate sources and yield a business model that facilitates competition. OSA enables increased opportunities for competition of systems upgrades and competition at the subsystem level to improve innovation."

Even fielded systems can create a competitive environment or open-systems architecture, McFarland said, adding that many defense companies "are looking to try to find a way to create their systems in a new form, bringing about improvement in their systems to the performance of the threat, and doing it through open systems architecture."

Better Buying Power 3.0

The department's Better Buying Power 3.0 initiative emphasizes such innovation and technical excellence while remaining focused on continual improvement, the assistant secretary told the audience.

"Better Buying Power now addresses the reality of our future," she added. "What we're seeing in front of us is that we need to refresh our technological superiority, ... improving our engineering skills, improving our workforce skills writ large, bringing about a closer relationship with industry at the conceptual level of our requirements, opening the door before we've decided on the final set of requirements [so] industry is able to provide us their inputs without having it be a conflict of interest."

Areas Being Considered for Future Strategies

The assistant secretary said that areas being considered for the military's future strategies include electronic warfare, long-range air-to-air missiles, radars operating in nonconventional bandwidths, counter-space capabilities, longer range and more accurate ballistic and cruise missiles, improved undersea warfare capabilities, and cyber and informational operations.

"These are not trivial," she said. "These are challenges, these are innovations, and we're talking with the senior leadership in each of our largest defense industries, and we're talking about them through the lens of addressing current and emerging threats."

The idea of open architecture for the Defense Department also is not trivial, McFarland said.

"It's a means of achieving our needs," she added, "and all of us have seen evidence over time of how well that provides us the opportunity to resurge."

EMILY’s List Congratulates Kamala Harris

EMILY’s List Congratulates Kamala Harris on Her Reelection Victory for California Attorney General

First Woman Attorney General of California to Serve Second Term

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, EMILY’s List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, congratulated Kamala Harris on her reelection victory for a second term as California Attorney General. Kamala Harris overwhelmingly defeated her self-funded Republican opponent Ron Gold.

 

“Tonight, Californian voters chose a proven leader by reelecting Kamala Harris as California Attorney General,” said Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’s List. “Kamala made history four years ago as the first woman and first person of color to serve as Attorney General in California. With the help of EMILY’s List – now more than three million members strong – Kamala will continue to break down barriers for women and working families to ignite in the Golden State.”

 

EMILY’s List first endorsed Kamala Harris during the 2009-2010 election cycle. This cycle, EMILY’s List helped Kamala win a second term as Attorney General for California. Already a rising star in the Democratic party, Kamala served as District Attorney of San Francisco from 2004-2010. Kamala focused on reducing organized gang crime and domestic violence. In 2010 Kamala became the first woman and first person of colour in California’s history to serve as Attorney General. While in office, Kamala has pioneered the adoption of data-driven technology by California’s law enforcement and fought to stop the trafficking of guns, drugs, and human beings in the state. In response to the state’s foreclosure crisis in 2011, Kamala secured a $20 billion settlement from the nation’s banks for Californian homeowners and pushed the passage of the California Homeowner Bill of Rights. Kamala has also frequently spoken out in favour of same-sex marriage, publicly urging the Supreme Court to overturn DOMA and later ordering all 58 counties in California to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

 

EMILY’s List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, has raised over $400 million to support pro-choice Democratic women candidates – making it one of the most successful political organizations ever. We recruit and train candidates, support strong campaigns, research women's issues, and turn out women voters. We've trained over 9,000 women to run, and helped elect over 100 women to the House, 19 to the Senate, 11 governors, and over five hundred to state and local office. Since its founding in 1985, almost one-third of the candidates EMILY’s List has helped elect to Congress have been women of color - including every single Latina, African American, and Asian American Democratic woman currently serving.

 

How to Treat a Family Member with Dementia This Holiday Season World-renowned Expert Shares 5 Helpful Tips

Whether it’s Mom, Dad, Grandma or Grandpa – or your spouse – the “holiday quarter” can present special challenges for families with a loved one suffering from dementia.

“We have an expectation that loved ones should never change from the person we’ve perceived them to be for years, but everyone changes significantly over an extended period, especially those diagnosed with dementia,” says Kerry Mills, a sought-after expert in best care practices for people with dementia, which includes Alzheimer’s. November is Alzheimer’s Awareness Month.

“Dementia encompasses a wide range of brain diseases, which means it’s not the fault of a Grandma if she has trouble remembering things or gets flustered. Empathy for what she’s experiencing on the level of the brain will help your relationship with her. Do not expect her to meet you halfway to your world; you have to enter her world.”

Spouses have a particularly difficult time coping with their partner’s dementia, Mills says. A spousal relationship is a team and is central to the identities of both people. So, while you’re paying special attention to a parent’s or grandparent’s condition, extend it to his or her spouse, she says.

Families tend to have a hard time coping with a loved one’s dementia during holiday gatherings. Mills, coauthor with Jennifer A. Brush of “I Care, A Handbook for Care Partners of People with Dementia,” (engagingalzheimers.com), offers tips for how to interact with a loved one – say, Grandma – whose brain is deteriorating.

•  Do not get frustrated. “First, do no harm” – the excellent maxim taught to medical students, is also a great first principle for those interacting with Grandma, who may be experiencing a level of frustration and anxiety you cannot comprehend adequately. She simply doesn’t have access to certain details, but she is still a conscious and feeling person who has plenty to offer. If you get frustrated, she’ll pick up on it.

•  Dedicate someone to Grandma during the gathering. Of course, loving families will want to include Grandma in the group, but be careful not to overwhelm her with attention. Her brain, which has trouble processing some information, could use assistance – a liaison to help her process things. Grandpa could probably use a break; her son or daughter may be the best handler during a gathering.

•  Give Grandma purpose; give her a task in the kitchen. Keep Grandma, who may’ve been prolific in the kitchen in the past, engaged! Simple tasks, such as mashing potatoes or stirring gravy, may be best. Engage her in conversation about the food. If it’s Grandpa whose suffering dementia, include him in a group. Give him a cigar if the other men are going outside to smoke. Engage him in a conversation about football, which may allow him on his own terms to recall details from the past.

•  Use visual imagery and do not ask yes-or-no questions. Again, asking someone with Alzheimer’s to remember a specific incident 23 years ago can be like asking someone confined to a wheelchair to run a 40-yard dash – it’s physically impossible. Don’t pigeonhole her. Direct Grandma in conversation; say things to her that may stimulate recollection, but don’t push a memory that may not be there. Pictures are often an excellent tool.

•  Safety is your biggest priority.Whether during a holiday gathering or in general, Grandma may commit herself to activities she shouldn’t be doing, such as driving.

“She’s been driving for decades, and then she develops a memory problem, which not only prevents her from remembering her condition, but also how to drive safely,” Mills says. “This major safety concern applies to any potentially dangerous aspect to life.”

“Currently, there’s a stigma with the condition, but I’d like to change the baseline for how we regard dementia,” Mills says. “As with other medical conditions, Alzheimer’s should not be about waiting to die – patients often live 15 years or more after a diagnosis. It should be about living with it.”

About Kerry Mills

Kerry Mills, MPA, is an expert in best care practices for persons with dementia both in the home and in out-of-home health care residences and organizations. She is a consultant to numerous hospitals, assisted livings, hospice, home care agencies, senior day care centers and nursing homes. In her twelve-year career in health care, she has served as executive director and regional manager for numerous long-term dementia facilities. She is an outspoken advocate for persons with dementia, lecturing in Hong Kong, Canada, China, Europe and the United States. Her book, coauthored with Jennifer A. Brush, “I Care,” (engagingalzheimers.com), is the 2014 Gold Award Winner of the National Mature Media Awards. 

Detainee Transfer Announced

The Department of Defense announced today the transfer of Fouzi Khalid Abdullah Al Awda from the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay to the Government of Kuwait.

On July 14, a Periodic Review Board consisting of representatives from the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Justice, State; the Joint Staff, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence determined continued law of war detention of Al Awda does not remain necessary to protect against a continuing significant threat to the security of the United States. As a result of that review, which examined a number of factors, including security issues, Al Awda was recommended for transfer by consensus of the six departments and agencies comprising the Periodic Review Board.

In accordance with statutory requirements, the secretary of defense informed Congress of the United States' intent to transfer this individual and of his determination that this transfer meets the statutory standard.

The Periodic Review Board process was established by the president's March 7, 2011 Executive Order (EO) 13567.

The United States is grateful to the Government of Kuwait for its willingness to support ongoing U.S. efforts to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility. The United States coordinated with the Government of Kuwait to ensure this transfer took place consistent with appropriate security and humane treatment measures.

Today, 148 detainees remain at Guantanamo Bay.

More information:
Periodic Review Secretariat
http://www.prs.mil/

NGV Conference & Expo Set to Be Largest NGV Event of the Year

2014 North American NGV Conference & Expo Set to Be Largest NGV Event of the Year

 

Washington, D.C. — The 2014 North American NGV Conference & Expoto be held at the Kansas City Convention Center Nov. 11–14 in Kansas City, MO is set to be the largest NGV event of the year. The four-day program, which is hosted by NGVAmerica in cooperation with the Canadian NGV Alliance, features a comprehensive educational program, a 90,000+ square foot exposition, a Ride & Drive, two off-site tours of nearby fueling facilities, and numerous social functions where registrants can network, share ideas and collaborate.

 

The two plenary sessions and 20 informative breakout sessions will focus on practical tips and experiences. Among the more than 85 speakers are:

·        Congressmen Lee Terry (R-NE-02) and Sam Graves, Jr. (R-MO-06)

·        Scott Reed and Peter Mirijanian, experienced and respected Washington political advisors and contributors to FOX, MSNBC and other Washington media

·        Chad Hollett, Director of Transportation & Distribution, Kwik Trip

·        Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Sr. VP, ATA – American Trucking Associations

·        Steve Carey, Executive Director, NTEA – The Work Truck Association

·        Don Moore, Executive Director, Canadian Transportation Equipment Association

·        Charles Musgrove, COO, Dillon Transport

·        Bill Bliem, Sr. VP of Fleet Services, NFI

·        Gary Maresca, Sr. Director of Fleet Services, Bimbo Bakeries USA

·        Joe Goodwin, Director of Transportation, Seaboard Foods

·        Mike Lickert, Director of Fleet, Giant Eagle

·        John Erwin, Director of Operations, Saddle Creek Transportation

·        Steve Phillips, Sr. VP of Operations, Werner Transportation

·        Johannes Escudero, Exec. Director, and Evan Williams, Chairman, RNG Coalition

 

The expo will feature CNG and LNG fuel providers, station developers, equipment and component suppliers, design consultants, and vehicles from across the spectrum, from sedans to work trucks to Class 8 trucks. 

 

On Wednesday, Nov. 12, NGVAmerica President Matthew Godlewski and Clean Vehicle Education Foundation (CVEF) President Doug Horne will proudly present the 2014 NGV Achievement Awards to 12 recipients. The Awards recognize outstanding organizations and individuals for their contributions to advancing natural gas as a vehicular fuel.

 

“NGVAmerica is proud to be hosting the 2014 North American NGV Conference & Expo in Kansas City this year,” said NGVAmerica President Matthew Godlewski. “We look forward to bringing together the industry’s most influential advocates, allies and decision makers in this great city to work towards creating an even greater market for vehicles powered by clean and abundant domestically produced natural gas.”

 

Working with more than 20 supporting organizations, NGVAmerica has reached out to fleets of all types and sizes with special discounts to register for the conference. For more information on the 2014 North American NGV Conference & Expo, or to plan your attendance, visit the event website atwww.ngvamerica.org/conference/2014.

 

 

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About NGVAmerica

NGVAmerica is the nationalorganization driving the use of natural gas as a clean, domestic, safe and abundant transportation fuel. The organization represents more than 230companies, environmental groups,and government organizationsinterested in the promotion and use ofnatural gas in transportation. Formore information aboutNGVAmerica, visitwww.ngvamerica.org.

Sailors' Artwork Showcases the Navy

Face of Defense: Sailors' Artwork Showcases the Navy

By Navy Seaman Everett Allen
USS George Washington

WATERS NEAR GUAM, Nov. 4, 2014 - For more than 20 years, sailors have painted bulkheads, angle irons and decks on the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington. But for a talented group of artists aboard the vessel, painting is a pastime, a bonding experience and a unique way of telling the Navy's story.

Navy Aerographer's Mate 3rd Class Kristena Huck, from Deming, Wash., left, and Machinist's Mate Fireman Elizabeth Bowmer, from Astoria, Ore., pose beside a mural they painted on the aft mess decks of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington. The George Washington and its embarked carrier air wing, Carrier Air Wing 5, provide a combat-ready force that protects U.S. interests and those of its allies and partners in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. U.S. Navy photo by Seaman Everett Allen  (Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available.

In October 2014, Aerographer's Mate 3rd Class Kristena Huck, from Deming, Washington, and Machinist's Mate Fireman Elizabeth Bowmer, from Astoria, Oregon, completed the painting of two large-scale murals on the ship's aft mess decks.

One mural depicts USS George Washington "crossing the line," and the other displays the diversity of sailors through the depiction of various "faces of the Navy."

Artwork Features Members of Crew

"Four of the five faces are actually based on people around the ship," Huck said. "It was fun to do because a variety of sailors volunteered to have a character in the painting modeled after their face, which allowed the mural to reflect some of the Navy's ethnic diversity."

Each mural spans more than 136 square feet. Although several sailors helped throughout the process of creating the murals, only two remained to see the project through to completion.

"There was a small group of us that were actively working on the murals at the beginning," Huck said. "By the end, it was just Bowmer and I pushing each other to get the project done. We both have similar artistic styles, so the murals really blended together easily."

Determined to Complete Work

Sometimes finding the time to work together on the mural became a challenge, but Bowmer and Huck were determined to finish.

"Since we have two different rates, we didn't get to work on the project together very often," Bowmer said. "But we did try to schedule it so that we worked at the same time, so that we could bounce ideas off of each other."

According to Bowmer, they share a commonality in their artistic passion and skill, and their completion of the murals means the beginning of new painting endeavors.

"Even outside of this mural, Huck and I work on paintings pretty regularly," Bowmer said. "We live in the same berthing, so we get to sit down in the lounge and work on artwork together."

According to Bowmer, her desire to keep painting and designing will never wane.

"I plan to continue with this hobby," she said. "Whether we're underway or in port, I try to practice as much as I can to sharpen my skills. I plan on becoming a concept artist and art designer for video games after my enlistment in the Navy."

Lower Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences

Editor's Note: The recent drop in global oil prices is affecting economies around the world. This series examines the reasons behind the falling prices and their effects on major energy consumers and producers. Part One discusses the structural changes in the oil market, particularly the growth in supply and the decline in demand. Part Two will examine the countries likely to be most troubledby price drops, while Part Three will look at the countries likely to gain the most.

Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude oil has fallen by nearly 25 percent -- going from a high of $115 to about $87 a barrel -- and structural factors are causing concern among global oil producers that oil prices will remain near current levels through at least the end of 2015. This concern has caused several investment banks to slash their oil price outlooks for the immediate future. Stratfor believes that oil supplies will stay high as energy production in North America increases and OPEC countries remain hesitant or unable to cut production significantly. Moreover, in the short term, theChinese economic slowdown and stagnant European economy will limit the potential for growth in oil demand. These factors could make it harder for global oil prices to rebound to their previous levels.

Oil is the most geopolitically important commodity, and any structural change in oil markets will reverberate throughout the world, creating clear-cut winners and losers. Countries that consume large amounts of energy have been coping with oil prices above $100 per barrel since the beginning of 2011 as most of the developed world has been trying to emerge from financial and debt crises. A sustained period of lower oil prices could provide some relief to these countries. Major oil producers, on the other hand, have grown accustomed to high oil prices, often using them to underpin their national budgets. Sustained low oil prices will cause these oil producers to rethink their spending.

Analysis

The amount of oil production that has come online over the last four months is staggering. The United States has increased its production from 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in July to an estimated 9 million bpd. Libyan oil production has increased from about 200,000 bpd to more than 900,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq have all increased production in recent months, and OPEC's production is at the highest level in two years. To put this into perspective, the International Energy Agency's projection for global oil demand growth for 2014 is only 700,000 bpd -- roughly half of the total production increase mentioned above.

Click to Enlarge

Looking to 2015, the growth prospects for energy production in North America continue to be positive. Even after production grew by about 1 million bpd in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. oil production to increase by another 750,000 bpd in 2015. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration consistently has underestimated production growth from tight oil (oil extracted from formations that are not naturally very permeable).

Production Cuts Remain Unlikely

The only OPEC members with enough flexibility to reduce oil production voluntarily are the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. None of the other members are in a financial position to take oil production offline. Libya, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela all need maximum oil output and high prices to finance their budgets and social spending programs. Notably, Libya's OPEC governor called on the bloc to cut production by 500,000 bpd to buoy prices but made no mention that his country would take part in such a cut. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, seems to have taken the opposite position, prioritizing a greater market share over higher prices.

Saudi Arabia's status as OPEC's swing producer has historically meant that Saudi Aramco will reduce production to create higher oil prices. But with U.S. production increasing so quickly and prices that are still relatively high, Riyadh has little interest to do so: A significant reduction in oil production might not increase the price of oil enough to make forgoing the additional exports worthwhile. Riyadh found itself in the same position in the 1980s when it cut production only to discover that its control over international oil prices was limited. The Saudis have been hesitant to play the same card ever since, instead exerting a small influence on prices while continuing to produce at high levels. More broadly, during the last four decades the Saudis -- as well as the Emiratis and Kuwaitis -- have amassed large wealth funds, enabling them to simply sit back and weather a period of low oil prices.

This means that if oil prices continue dropping, it will fall largely to U.S. producers to slow production expansion. North America's tight oil production costs vary considerably from basin to basin, but so long as oil prices do not continue falling -- and they appear to have bottomed out in the mid-$80 per barrel range -- almost all tight oil production will remain profitable, and drilling will continue to increase. The U.S. oil rig count, a rough indicator of impending oil production, remains near record levels, indicating that the recent downturn in oil prices has not dampened interest in drilling.

In fact, in the short- to mid-term, production prospects outside North America will be rather bleak. Most of the recent production increases elsewhere around the globe were due to one-off events, such as the revival of Libya's production. There are only a few other changes -- such as Iranian exports becoming unconstrained or Saudi Aramco dipping into its spare production capacity -- that could put significant volumes of oil back on the market. In fact, it is more likely that large-scale production will go offline in places such as Nigeria and Libya. All of these possibilities limit the potential of a more drastic decline in oil prices.

Low Demand is Likely to Linger

On the demand side, a bullish oil market is unlikely. North American oil consumption is structurally in decline and has been since the mid 2000s. Electric vehicles, natural gas and other alternatives will continue to penetrate the North American oil market, albeit very slowly. The European oil market exhibits the same patterns seen in North America, but in Europe the structural decline is occurring amid slowing economic growth; many of Europe's more developed economies, such as that of France, are at effectively zero growth.

Meanwhile, China's economy will continue to descend from the peaks of its post-2008 investment and construction boom. The decline of housing markets and related industries nationwide is at the heart of China's economic slowdown and will in large part determine China's overall economic health during the next one to two years. Although a collapse in China's housing market in the next 12 to 18 months is not expected, should one occur, it would send China's economy into a tailspin and subsequently dampen demand for oil. However, Stratfor does not anticipate that Beijing would allow this to happen. The central government will likely enact more stimulus similar to previous economic measures, such as large-scale public infrastructure projects driven by state-led investment.

China's demand for oil could remain relatively strong in the absence of economic collapse, but China's increases in demand are likely to be more moderate than usual at an estimated 400,000 bpd over the course of the year. Increases in demand in the rest of the world combined will likely be no more than that figure. Meanwhile, global oil supplies do not appear likely to decline in the coming months. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that oil prices will stay lower than $100 per barrel for much of 2015, unless Saudi Arabia and OPEC change their minds about production cuts.

All eyes watching oil markets will turn to OPEC's semiannual meeting Nov. 27 to look for any shifts. If there are none, the lower price of oil will continue to have significant geopolitical consequences for consumer and producer countries alike.

"Lower Oil Prices Carry Geopolitical Consequences is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Military Family Support

In proclaiming November as Military Family Month, President Barack Obama urged Americans to recognize every spouse, parent, sibling, child, and loved one who stands with our service members. Obama said "we affirm our solemn vow to serve these families as well as they serve us."

Readout of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel's meeting with the Tunisian Minister of Defense Ghazi Jeribi

Pentagon Press Secretary Rear Adm. John Kirby provided the following readout:

Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel met with the Tunisian Minister of Defense Ghazi Jeribi here, today. Secretary Hagel kicked off the meeting by congratulating Minister Jeribi for the successful parliamentary elections underway in Tunisia, and praised their process as an important model for the region.

Following on previous bilateral discussions during the May 2014 Joint Military Commission in Tunis, Minister Jeribi and Secretary Hagel discussed ways in which the U.S. and Tunisia could cooperate in fighting terrorism, given continuing instability in the region.

The two leaders also discussed the growing regional concern over foreign fighters from North Africa moving to Iraq and Syria, as well as the threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and other al Qaeda splinter groups emerging in Africa.

The meeting wrapped up with Minister Jeribi thanking the U.S. for the ongoing security cooperation programs, and Secretary Hagel underscored the strong U.S. commitment for continued support to Tunisia.

SMOKING FLIGHT

11/03/2014 03:06 PM CST

An F/A-18 Super Hornet, assigned to Strike Fighter Attack Squadron 106, prepares to launch from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt during carrier qualifications at sea, Oct. 30, 2014.

FLYING FUEL

11/03/2014 03:14 PM CST

A KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft refuels a Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 Hornet over Iraq, Oct. 30, 2014. The airman is a boom operator assigned to the 340th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron.

AFRICA SUPPORT

U.S. Marines and U.S. Public Health Service members return during Operation United Assistance at Roberts International Airport in Monrovia, Liberia, Oct. 31, 2014. Operation United Assistance is a U.S. military operation providing command and control, logistics, training and engineering support to the U.S. government's efforts to contain the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa.

PENTAGON GUEST BOOK

11/03/2014 03:24 PM CST

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel watches as Tunisian Defense Minister Ghazi Jeribi signs the guest book at the Pentagon, Nov. 3, 2014. The two defense leaders met to discuss issues of mutual importance.